Colorado St.
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
154  Darby Gilfillan SO 20:11
193  Ali Kallner FR 20:18
212  Janelle Lincks JR 20:22
235  McKenna Spillar SO 20:25
323  Rachael Rudel SO 20:38
473  Alexandra Hess JR 20:52
502  Mary Franke SO 20:55
537  Kate White FR 20:58
773  Laura Yarrow SR 21:18
818  Macy Kreutz FR 21:21
National Rank #30 of 339
Mountain Region Rank #6 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 37.0%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 1.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 12.7%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 54.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Darby Gilfillan Ali Kallner Janelle Lincks McKenna Spillar Rachael Rudel Alexandra Hess Mary Franke Kate White Laura Yarrow Macy Kreutz
Roy Griak Invitational 09/26 713 22:05 20:14 20:10 20:27 20:44 20:38 20:53 20:52 20:58 21:36
Joe Piane Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/02 810 21:30 20:24 20:24 20:38 20:41 20:46 20:55 20:56
Rocky Mountain Shootout 10/03 1240 21:35
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 829 20:25 20:32 20:33 20:32 21:04 21:00 20:58
Mountain West Championships 10/30 701 20:19 19:44 20:12 20:52 21:26 21:14 21:14
Mountain Region Championships 11/13 766 19:46 20:39 20:17 21:03 20:55 21:50 21:03
NCAA Championship 11/21 20:29





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 37.0% 22.2 543 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.5 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.8 2.0 0.2
Region Championship 100% 5.3 165 0.6 15.4 18.6 19.5 20.0 15.5 8.4 1.7 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Darby Gilfillan 45.9% 108.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Ali Kallner 39.9% 129.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Janelle Lincks 38.6% 141.0
McKenna Spillar 37.7% 151.0
Rachael Rudel 37.0% 182.1
Alexandra Hess 37.0% 212.8
Mary Franke 37.0% 216.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Darby Gilfillan 23.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.9 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.2 4.5
Ali Kallner 28.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.7 2.2 2.9 2.5 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.6
Janelle Lincks 31.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.4
McKenna Spillar 34.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.8
Rachael Rudel 44.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
Alexandra Hess 55.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Mary Franke 57.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.6% 100.0% 0.6 0.6 2
3 15.4% 83.5% 0.5 0.8 2.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.3 2.5 12.9 3
4 18.6% 62.4% 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 0.5 7.0 11.6 4
5 19.5% 40.1% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.1 11.7 7.8 5
6 20.0% 15.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 16.9 3.2 6
7 15.5% 4.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 14.8 0.7 7
8 8.4% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.2 0.2 8
9 1.7% 1.7 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 0.0% 0.0 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 37.0% 0.6 0.5 0.8 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.6 2.3 3.2 3.4 4.3 4.7 5.4 3.6 63.0 0.6 36.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Kansas 26.0% 1.0 0.3
SMU 21.4% 1.0 0.2
Stephen F. Austin 9.1% 1.0 0.1
Texas A&M 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Brown 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Oklahoma 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Penn 1.8% 1.0 0.0
Florida 1.7% 2.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 2.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 2.0 0.0
New Hampshire 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.3
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 7.0